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Prediction Markets — The Folly of Prediction

By Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics, June 6, 2011

Fact: Human beings love to predict the future.

Fact: Human beings are not very good at predicting the future.

Fact: Because the incentives to predict are quite imperfect — bad predictions are rarely punished — this situation is unlikely to change.

But wouldn’t it be nice if it did?

That is the gist of our latest hour-long special of Freakonomics Radio, called “The Folly of Prediction.”

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