By Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics, June 6, 2011
Fact: Human beings love to predict the future.
Fact: Human beings are not very good at predicting the future.
Fact: Because the incentives to predict are quite imperfect — bad predictions are rarely punished — this situation is unlikely to change.
But wouldn’t it be nice if it did?
That is the gist of our latest hour-long special of Freakonomics Radio, called “The Folly of Prediction.”
Read all: http://freakonomics.com/2011/06/30/freakonomics-radio-hour-long-episode-4-%E2%80%9Cthe-folly-of-prediction%E2%80%9D-2/