Question Details

Which of the Big Three credit rating agencies will be first to downgrade the US credit score, before the end of August?

Which of the Big Three credit rating agencies will be first to downgrade the US credit score, before the end of August?

Asked by: Super Userkruijs in Business » Indices
Settled on 08/05/2011 23:45 Settled by hfl13

Predictions

Background

Fitch became the latest credit rating agency to warn the US to resolve its impasse on fiscal policy, saying failure to reach an agreement to raise the country’s borrowing limit would threaten its triple-A credit rating as well as global financial markets.

The note from Fitch follows a similar warning issued last week from Moody’s Investors Service, which said it would put the US on review for a possible downgrade if Congress and the White House did not strike a deal to increase America’s $14,300bn debt limit in the coming weeks. In April, Standard & Poor’s changed the outlook on the US credit score from “stable” to “negative”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e369d558-91f7-11e0-b8c1-00144feab49a.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_%28credit_rating_agencies%29

Find similar: standard & poor's, fitch, moody's

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   hfl13

By the way I settled with the time of the news breaking.

   Super Userkruijs

woooot

   Super Usergotmick

No kidding. If everything wasn't already unstable enough, it will sure be now. Can't wait to see the Dow on Monday, it's gonna tank.

   hfl13

Congrats bernardo - I didn´t believed it.

   hfl13

Government expecting S&P downgrade - WTF? - Reinvested in None. Will the next crises be the S&P sowngrade crisis?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/05/downgrade-us-standard-and-poors_n_919867.html

   hfl13

They were never this powerful. Company evil overlond "S&P" wants to kill the economy worldwide? Now would be the moment to cause a severe crisis. My bet they won´t dare or they get burned on the stake ;-)

   bernardo

It feels like I'm the only one holding stakes of S&P by now. They should come out of the closet every moment..

   hfl13

Someone should tell that our Moody-Friends. Not following their market ...

   bernardo

Moody's dropped out of the race: "Tuesday, Moody's reaffirmed its triple-A rating on the U.S., saying the increased debt limit has "virtually eliminated the risk" of a default. It gave the U.S. a negative outlook, however, warning that it could downgrade the U.S. for the first time if fiscal discipline slackens or the economy weakens, among other developments." http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2011-08-02-credit-rating_n.htm

   bernardo

'Standard & Poor’s indicated last week that anything less than $4 trillion in cuts would jeopardize the U.S.’s AAA rating.
“A grand bargain of that nature would signal the seriousness of policy makers to address the fiscal situation in the U.S.,” John Chambers, chairman of S&P’s sovereign rating committee, said in a video interview distributed by the New York-based ratings firm on July 28.
Moody’s Investors Service reiterated on July 29 that the U.S. should be able to keep its Aaa rating as long as the Treasury agrees to raise the debt ceiling.' http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-07-31/debt-downgrade-amounts-to-few-basis-points-in-ratings-history.html

   bernardo

I found a paper on this: "This paper has found that Standard and Poor’s tends to be the most cautious of the Rating
Agencies, with the fastest downgrades of corporate bonds, and average timing for upgrades." http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/glucksman/docs/Macdonald.pdf

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