Basic tips for beginners

1. Get free cash

   • Login daily, brings you $100 per day
   • Creating questions gives you $100 the first 5 each. Afterwards, every 5th question gives you $250 (limited to the first 100 questions)
   • Bring your friends, each followed recommendation gives you $250
   • Watch out for special promotions in the top right green area on the home page

2. Use your cash wisely

   • Never invest more than 10% in one question
   • Keep every single bet below 5% of available cash
   • Use small bets up to $100 to get a better return, above $100 payout is smaller

3. Play frequently

   • Decide and bet quickly in order to get good odds
   • Buy on questions suspending soon
   • Buy on recently published questions

Play cool

1. Be confident

   When you are not gambling with undervalued options but predicting seriously the outcome of an event, you should be confident with your stakes and keep cool. No matter how the question develops: You have chosen your option - You were sure of the outcome than. Why should that change all of a sudden? Best way playing the serious predictions is to stake your bet and leave. Fire and forget. This will not bring maximum gain in shortest time, but it will pay out. In this case: Don't sell to prevent further loss if a position goes down. My addition – if your option goes down & you are shure buy more.

2. Don't be stuborn

   Don't let your potential loses influence you. If you have a losing position don´t try to cover it up – sell or forget that investment. Be careful of different interpretations if everyone bets against you it could be that you are missing an interpretation/rule or a settlement detail. Ask in comments or forum. Trying to keep investing to protect your networth is not a wise choice. Cash in if the Admins & Author take the other side.

3. Don't panic

   In case you run out of cash, simply stay away for a day or two, look in History of suspended questions how the others are doing, and try to guess the reason of their moves.

Advanced tips

1. Knowledge helps

   Bet on topics you have knowledge of.

2. Follow the history of the question

   See what the others are doing - bets, amounts, odds, cash-ins and returns, but never follow blindly other people moves - you should know exactly why you make a bet.

3. 6. Watch other users

   Super Users & Cat Admins are completely open - study their bets to learn something about the questions or find interesting questions. If you want to profit than do their strategy first – The early bird catches the worm. Don´t follow them stupidly because they mostly take all the interesting volume out of a question. Other players have an option to hide all or parts of their bets – be careful here, they could give false leads using both open and private predictions.

4. Stay fully invested

   Only reserve cash for soon to start daily questions.

5. Use 90% questions that settle soon

   If you earn 10% in a day that is very good and the risk is very low, although not on sports.

6. Evaluate the actual value of an option

   To detect undervalues options, ask yourself: What is it worth for you? If you rate a 5% at 15% you should buy.

7. Consider better payout

   Lower percentages gives far better return

8. Cash in losing options

   Safe bets that would be worth 0 at settlement. Fine is 10%. e.g. Ms with time alternatives July August September – sell July if its August 1st or its no longer probable – Selling options that are no longer possible outcomes is allowed.

9. Don´t be greedy

   if your value is up and you are still not sure about the outcome, cash in.

10. Check your important questions before suspend date

    Invest more, or change options.

11. Understand the questions

    Closely read the settlement details and the options to avoid misinterpretation

12. Clarify your understanding

    Ask questions with message, comment, forum, or flags on the question in case you are uncertain about how settlement will take place.

Frequent players

1. Become familiar with special questions

   The weekly Gallup question on Obama´s approval rating is easy to forecast if you read the information right having 4 days of seven and the values of the week before should give you hints.

2. Post your own questions

   If there is nothing you know or are interested in, this will help you out

3. Use Bookmarks

   You can manage your invested questions or ones you are interested in on your Favorites of your profile

4. Maximize profits

   Avoid questions where your prediction has already passed 90%, even if it will close in a few days. You can make more profit on some other question by that time.

5. Start trends

   At new questions you can buy to start a trend. If the others follow you can sell 10-20% higher in a few hours. If the others bet against you, you are stuck or have to take loses by selling.

6. Time the question

   There are questions were you can chose an early option and try again if that fails or the time is up.

7. Invest small in high payout options

   Risky strategy to gain more start money. Bet your daily login $25 on very low options (< 2%) settling soon where you have some hope.

8. “Follow the Leaders”

   Dangerous strategy. This is good to find questions but ask yourself “Is it still cheap?” because a money leaders usually buys all he finds worthy. Daily Indices questions are high risk because you may follow a leader in but you may miss his cash in later. It is much better to follow the daily questions and ignore others.

High profile players

1. Insurance or hedging your bets

   Buy very cheap options below 3% just to win in every case or limit loses.

2. Aggressive strategy / betting Outsiders

   Do not place your bets when your predictions are at or above 50%. While you may be sure of the outcome, again, your return is not aggressive. Take a position when the percentage of your choice is below 40% (preferably less) in order to get a better return. In truth, if you want to grow rapidly, you need to shop around a bit, a take positions where your choice is below 20%. Then, other players who feel the same, will drive your 20% placement up to 50% or better. At this point, you've made 150% on your position. If the event is not going to be settled for some time, cash out your position and go shopping again.

3. Buy low – sell high!

   10% sales fine is ok. Safe cash in gains beat the settlement risk, if you are not sure and have gained much value already. Waiting for a settlement includes always a risk of losing. Try to keep the options you believe in, though.

4. Cash out early

   Consider to cash out your position if it reaches 90% or more, and still has time before settlement. You can put your money back to work.

5. Avoid fandom

   Wanting your team to win is not profitable – try to bet against fans. Most starting odds are professional opinion. If fans put the team 10% higher - buy against. Knowledge is no bonus if you can read the stats.

6. Other sources: Statistics game or professional odds

   Sports statistics or betting odds (eg www.oddschecker.com) can help you bet. Intrade is good for politics. Use Wikipedia for Awards.

Conspirational considerations

1. In either case: Make your own decisions.

2. Do not trust on the movements of the questions

   They are caused by speculation.

3. Do not trust the comments

   They only aim at you predicting certain, wrong outcomes.

4. Do not trust any advice or suggestions

   They will put you off the scent.

5. Do not trust other players

   They just want your money.

6. Don't trust us

   It isn't coincidentally us being on top of the leaderboards.

7. Do not trust these guidelines

   As they are written by us.

Enjoy predicting!

1. Real cash

   Win the Knew The News coffee mug and sell it for (at least) a million at ebay ;-)