, posts: 26, latest: Super Userkruijs
While the high flexibility of new, thin markets allows for fast adjustments to the imaginary "correct" probabilities, it also allows players to influence the odds by buying unlikely shares and then immediately buying the more likely options on such a low percentage that the gains in most of the cases by far outweigh the losses of selling the unwanted options right after buying your favorites.

Which measures should be imposed to limit this effect?

Please use this thread to post suggestions and to vote them up or down.

Discussion is here:
Knew The News · The Markets' Systematic Problems, Investment Limits, Cash-In Fines


A time-dependent fine, like 50% during the first hour, 25% until the third hour etc.

Limiting the total individual investment in a market

Adjust parameter in the market calculation that translates to its liquidity/initial size

Cash-in ban for a few hours after the prediction is made

Cash-in ban until a few hours before suspension of the market

No selling on index markets at all

Cash-in ban for predictions which make up 25% or more of total market volume

No in-play questions for index markets, questions suspend before stock market trading day

Index market questions suspend earlier (eg 4 hours before stock market closure)

Lifting the (minimum) cash-in fine from 10% to 15%

I voted for most of these, as i recognize they represent a problem (as they stand). Nevertheless, i indulge in these
markets, and enjoy them... One of the couple i didn't vote for was the "cash in ban a few hours before
the suspension"... I mistakenly thought that would be identical with simply moving the suspension earlier,
and it could simply be done that way... Of course, this would only invoke NO selling, but allow buying,
and that window would still be open... So, i shall see if i can change my vote..

Even though i am giving thumbs up to lots of these, perhaps, you needn't undertake all of them, since
they probably require a lot of reprogramming to modify.. So, perhaps just do a few of the most popular ones
and see if that helps the "problem"...
I shall see if i can reverse my thumbs down on that one question..

Nope, can't do it, but you can have my ok, to change the ballot box... :)

you can! click the small red cross below the thumbs!

and remember: no discussion here, voting only!!

NEW option: No changes, except A TOTALLY NEW formula TBD (to be determined), that removes problem of betting variations that vacuum money out of KtN.

Please vote, although a late comer..

Cut off very low percentages = no option below 0,5%.

Increase the initial market volume by 400% to let the market take more bets.

"Increase the initial market volume by 400% to let the market take more bets."
is the same as earlier one: "Adjust parameter in the market calculation that translates to its liquidity/initial size"

Sorry - wanted a more hands on approach.

Hi all, I guess we've got some consensus here that for the short term modification of the predicting mechanisms the following changes are being made, and will take effect on next monday:
- Adjust parameter in the market calculation that translates to its liquidity/initial size
- Cash-in ban for a few hours after the prediction is made (I propose: 2 hours)

I will implement these within the next days. I want to thank all of you who took the time to come up with your proposals and I hope you understand that a complete replacement of the mechanism, or the interface on the site, would interfere too much, and would mean a very high risk of breaking the user experience. Additionally, simply imposing rules which would describe a certain "pattern" of bets as "cheating" and threatening with punishment is highly subject to interpretation, and would need a close monitoring on the site. So, we'll start with two quite simple system changes which will safely constrain the effectiveness of the known pattern.

Meanwhile, we may continue to discuss even further changes to the system to make it water tight. And of course, once implemented, you may restart having fun on in-play djia market questions.

So, thanks again for your contributions, and my apologies if I wasn't able to answer all of your concerns in an appropriate way.

I hope you enjoy predicting the news on Knew The News, just as I do.

(Implementation complete and deployed. adjusted parameters will only take effect in markets created from now on.)

Great news - now I need some new indeces questions to test the changes.

@kruijs: how much did you increase the initial market size.

initial market size is increased by factor 100, the b constant is increased too.

additionally implemented: Cut off very low percentages = no option below 1%.
in return, the selling ban is reduced to 1 hour.

Regarding changes, Can you give us an update on the rollback of the net worth of the top 5? Has it been cancelled or is it still going to happen? If it is going to happen, the sooner the better because anything we gain until then is meaningless. If it isn't going to happen please let us know so I can start passing people again.

For the record, I voted for the rollback before and still think it is the right thing to do to keep the game competitive and enjoyable for everyone.

still waiting for a definitive reply...

I agree and hope the restart can happen soon.