, posts: 5, latest: Super Userkruijs
To make predictions running for a long time be more attractive, we could introduce a bonus system which increases the payout of a prediction based on its age.

Feel free to add own proposals.

Vote up/down on proposals to express your opinion and agreement.


Increase payout on settlement based on the elapsed time since prediction was made.

Example: Normally, a stake of 100$ made on an option with 25% would return 400$.

Age less than one day: 75% = 300$ (instead of 400$)
between 1 day and 1 week: 100% = 400$
between 1 week and 1 month: 150% = 600$
between 1 month and 0.5 year: 200% = 800$
between 0.5 and 1 year: 300% = 1200$
more than 1 year: 500% = 2000$

Remember it is still only play money. To reduce a payout by 25% would not expand user interest in short term markets. Which is something I enjoy playing. Conversely, long term markets turn me off because I know I could have used those betting funds more wisely in short term gambles. So I suggest letting the short term markets retain their current payouts and if more people deem it wise, then increase the payout on long term markets with a bonus of your choosing.

Remember also that if new players tie up all their cash in long term markets they have no reason to return to KtN because they have nothing in the short term to bet with. You are a smart person and you know that you need to increase your daily following to be successful. So the real question should be, "What do I have to do to generate a more repeatable audience while still offerring long term predictable news stories and not be shutting out my new players due to a lack of cash flow."

I think the sales fine - used currently - is enough.
I think progressive punishment would mostly stimulate bet-and-fiorget bets,
not betting precision.

Part of the game is to balance cash flow with long-term investments.

Rather than increase the returns on long-term investments I suggest that reducing the fine for early liquidation of positions. For example:
Suspension date more than a year away: 2.5%
Suspension date more than three months away: 5.0%
Suspension date more than a month away: 7.5%

I also think this would be MUCH easier to program and to understand.

I think that a small bonus for long term predictions would be fine but I am against any penalty for short term predictions.

We recommend to our new players that they make small wagers in short term markets to build up their accounts. The proposed system will penalize them for doing what is recommended and encourage them to do the opposite.

Also many markets are only available for less than 24 hours. These include the daily stock market questions and all of the baseball, hockey and professional and college basketball games. People would probably still play the stock market questions but since the sports markets are more of a gamble than a well thought prediction the penalty would make the daily sports markets virtually unplayable. This would include 2430 baseball games, 1280 NHL hockey games, 1312 NBA basketball games, a couple thousand college basketball games plus playoff games for each sport.

The bonus for long term predictions is a good idea but maybe a little too generous. Use the example above with 4 options at 25% each. Under the current system in order to make a profit I have to make a correct prediction. If I wager $100 on each of the 4 options and leave them until settlement I will only break even and get back my original $400.

With the proposed changes I could wager $100 on each 4 options, wait 1 week and get back $600 for a $200 profit no matter which option won because I had them all. If it were a 1 month market my $400 would double to $800. In a 6 month market my $400 would triple to $1200 and for a 1 year market my $400 would become $2000 every time and with no risk.

The ones who would benefit the most are the ones who have the most. I have about $300,000 invested in markets and $2,500,000 in cash and my net worth went up 4% last month. If I could put $2,500,000 in weekly markets 3 times per month my net worth could increase by 200% per month. Even though I made $100,000/month with the current system and could make $5,000,000/month with the proposed new system I still prefer the current system and ask that you don't make such a drastic change. The only good thing is that everyones extra millions will be distributed evenly so as not to alter the odds for everyone else.

How about:

Under 3 months - 100% Same as now.
3 months to under 6 months - 105%
6 months to under 1 year - 110%
1 year or more - 125%

Still a small incentive to invest in the longer term markets but not enough to have such a drastic effect on the game.