Question Details

Will NASA successfully launch its new Mars rover "Curiosity" in November?

Will NASA successfully launch its new Mars rover "Curiosity" in November?

Asked by: bernardo in Science » Space
Settled on 11/27/2011 21:14 Settled by Super Userkruijs
Winning option:s With a picture-perfect launch behind it, NASA's new Mars rover has begun the long trek to the Red Planet.

The car-size Curiosity rover blasted off Saturday at 10:02 a.m. ET from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station here and separated from its Atlas 5 rocket right on schedule, about 45 minutes later.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45453320/ns/technology_and_science-space/

Predictions

Yes
Yes
No
No

Background

"NASA's next Mars rover will land at the foot of a layered mountain inside the planet's Gale crater. [...] The rover and other spacecraft components are being assembled and are undergoing final testing. The mission is targeted to launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida between Nov. 25 and Dec. 18." http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/msl/news/msl20110722.html

"In a prime mission lasting one Martian year -- nearly two Earth years -- after landing, researchers will use the rover's tools to study whether the landing region has had environmental conditions favorable for supporting microbial life and for preserving clues about whether life existed." http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/msl/multimedia/gallery/pia14290-anno.html

Find similar: nasa, curiosity, mars

Comments

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   Super UserJosef Biesenberger

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/11/21/nasa-to-launch-mars-rover-dream-machine-this-week/

   Super Usergotmick

Ah ha. No prob. Just seemed kind of odd!

   bernardo

Erm, November! :)

   bernardo

Ah, shit, I just mixed up August and September and was wondering what the heck you were talking about :)

   Super Usergotmick

And why is this only open for six days???

   bernardo

As far as I know the recent launches went through quite smoothly. Since NASA won't delay a launch without reason I consider the earlier days as much more likely than later ones. I think the most frequent reason for launch delays is bad weather and this is also not very likely to persist for five consecutive days. As long as they don't get behind schedule for some other reasons they should be able to do this in November. Why do yo think the dates are all equally likely?
As long as you have no serious objections I'd say feel free to bet against me :)

   Super Usercharlesf

Good Market but I have 2 questions.

Isn't the 6 day window for the question to be open a bit short since the event isn't scheduled to occur for over 3 months?

Second. If the intent of the question is to be taken as written, November only, the starting odds seem to be backwards. The potential launch window is 24 days of which only 6 are in November. If it goes up as scheduled and all dates as of now are equally likely 25% of the possible days are in November and 75% are in December.

If the intent was to include the whole launch window, which your starting odds seem to favor, please clarify.

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