Another market with gotmick´s design. Picture is cat 4 Earl from 2010.

NOAA's 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 65% chance of an above normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

This outlook reflects an expected set of conditions that is conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity. These conditions are based on three climate factors:

The tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995,
A continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region),
ENSO-neutral conditions most likely (no El Niño or La Niña), with lingering La Niña impacts into the summer.

In addition, several dynamical model forecasts of the number and strength of tropical cyclones generally predict an above normal season. Luckily the spread got smaller with the update so I decided for even odds.

The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

12-18 Named Storms, (The number this market represents) updated 14-19
6-10 Hurricanes updated updated 7-10
3-6 Major Hurricanes updated 3-5
An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

The official NHC seasonal averages are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml