Question Details

When will the first Hurricane of the 2011 season (June 1st - November 30th) be in the Gulf of Mexico?

When will the first Hurricane of the 2011 season (June 1st - November 30th) be in the Gulf of Mexico?

Asked by: flasteph in General » Weather
Settled on 10/01/2011 05:00 Settled by Super Usergotmick
Winning option:ter October 1st or Not at all for 2011 Didn't happen. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Predictions

Background

Current Gulf Coast Water Temp off the St Petersburg, FL Coast is 91

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_tropical_cyclone
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html

From the wikipedia link:
'Decrease in wind shear from July to August produces a significant increase of tropical activity.[23] An average of 2.8 tropical storms develop annually in August. On average, four named systems and one hurricane occur by August 30, and by September 4, the Atlantic ocean has spawned its first major hurricane.[6]'

To clarify - entering the Gulf of Mexico will mean that a Hurricane crosses the Florida Straits bearing West OR the Yukatan Channel/Straits bearing North - - - OR a hurricane forms North of the Yukatan Channel/Straits in the Gulf of Mexico or West of the Florida Straits in the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.worldatlas.com/aatlas/infopage/gulfofmexico.htm

We are up to Cindy for Named Storms already, which, on average, doesn't happen until August (source = baynews9.com)

Comments

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   hfl13

and I went to September 18th ;-)

   cici

Nate went.

   hfl13

Go Nate!

   hfl13

Looks like there could be one forming in the Gulf of Mexico now - Hurricane Katia seems to be aiming at Canada (based on Irenes path).

   cici

I dont take too much too seriously, and knew you were kidding. I wouldn't make it through another hurricane though. That I know. Have too much trouble taking care of myself anymore.

   Super Usergotmick

Sorry cici, I was just kidding. Living in Florida, I'm sure you take them more seriously. You're certainly not out of the woods with this one yet.

   cici

and you're laughing all the way. we do expect to miss the Gulf with this one, but we also expect to miss my house.

   Super Usergotmick

The current forecast cone says Irene's eye will stay east of the gulf. Right over Cici's house. :)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

   cici

@hfl13 - your loss, my win! Thursday or Friday we will know here. I bought a 14 day supply of food for the cat. One spaghetti still had Irene going over us, and to your precious Gulf. I have no bets on this.

   hfl13

Damn Hurricane Irene might miss her geography ;-)

   cici

anything is possible. right now with winds at 60 mph it's so close to land it probably will not turn into a hurricane. If it goes into Belize it probably will not be able to become a hurricane, or make it to the Gulf. but, anything is possible with these storms, The one behind is really looking good though.

   hfl13

Will use CDT as timezone and NOAA announcement to define the time=day if Harvey becomes a Hurricane. Comments?

   hfl13

Just had to edit the top option back in because there is a chance (up to 32% says NOAA) that Harvey developes into a hurricane today before making landfall in Belize.

   flasteph

REVISED FORECAST

NOAA is calling for more named storms

Hurricane forecasters are predicting more named storms than expected this season. The forecast now calls for 14 to 19 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 mph, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday. The forecast increases what was already expected to be a busier-thanaverage season, which started June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

In May, the prediction was 12 to 18 named storms in the Atlantic basin, with six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes.

'The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,' said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, in a statement. 'Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we've seen so far this season.' Forecasters point to an era of heightened Atlantic hurricane activity, the third-highest temperatures on record in the Atlantic and the possible redevelopment of La Niña as reasons for the more active season.

- Danny Valentine, tampabay.com


   cici

here comes our first chance gathering steam southeast of the Lesser Antillies. A bit early but you never know.

   cici

my birthday is August 18th, a very popular hurricane date. Please have everyone realize we are talking about Hurricanes, not Tropical Storms.

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