Question Details

When will the first Hurricane of the 2011 season (June 1st - November 30th) be in the Gulf of Mexico?
Predictions
Background
Current Gulf Coast Water Temp off the St Petersburg, FL Coast is 91
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_tropical_cyclone
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html
From the wikipedia link:
'Decrease in wind shear from July to August produces a significant increase of tropical activity.[23] An average of 2.8 tropical storms develop annually in August. On average, four named systems and one hurricane occur by August 30, and by September 4, the Atlantic ocean has spawned its first major hurricane.[6]'
To clarify - entering the Gulf of Mexico will mean that a Hurricane crosses the Florida Straits bearing West OR the Yukatan Channel/Straits bearing North - - - OR a hurricane forms North of the Yukatan Channel/Straits in the Gulf of Mexico or West of the Florida Straits in the Gulf of Mexico.
http://www.worldatlas.com/aatlas/infopage/gulfofmexico.htm
We are up to Cindy for Named Storms already, which, on average, doesn't happen until August (source = baynews9.com)
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