Question Details

Will Michele Bachmann win the Republican Caucus in Iowa?

Will Michele Bachmann win the Republican Caucus in Iowa?

Asked by: hfl13 in Politics » United States
Settled on 01/05/2012 04:39 Settled by Super Usergotmick
Winning option: She came in 6th.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/

Predictions

Yes
Yes
No
No

Background

At the moment it looks like Michele Bachmann is the favorite for the GOP caucus in Iowa. Her poll results are impressive and she avoided policy mistakes and had only one gaffe (John Wayne birth place). Latest polls see her as the frontrunner in Iowa and more surprising as #2 in New Hampshire behind Romney. The latest polls are very bad for the other contenders like Pawlenty, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman and Santorum. They need to use their chances better or the Iowa caucus is game over for that lot. Conservative voters seem to have chosen and the chances for Palin & Perry deminish to compete for these voters.

Starting odds 55% Yes are intrade again.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/58924.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Bachmann
http://twitter.com/#!/MicheleBachmann

This will run till two/three days before the Caucus.



Find similar: GOP, primary, caucus, Iowa, 2012, Michele Bachmann

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   cici

she's quit the race

   hfl13

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749797 (without the point works)

   hfl13

Thanks Cheesenips - my mistake - the right link is http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749797. Sorry must have been my preparation for the just posted Ames market. Today michele bachmann is 46,9 for Iowa.

I am looking for nice state pictures to start a batch of early primary markets like Iowa, NH, SC.

   Cheesenips

Great market hfl13! Careful though... the Intrade market that you link to is the Ames straw poll, not the caucus. Wikipedia explains: "For the Republicans, the Iowa caucuses follow (and should not be confused with) the Ames Straw Poll in August of the preceding year. Out of the five Ames Straw Poll iterations, 1987 and 2007 are the only years in which the winner of the Ames Straw Poll has not gone on to win the Iowa caucuses." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses The Ames straw poll will be held August 13, 2011. The Iowa Democratic and Republican caucuses will be held on February 6, 2012. I can see that your question refers to the caucus because you set it to suspend on January 15th. Just want to clarify...

   hfl13

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59740.html
Intrade now 73%
Check yourself: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=746828

   hfl13

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59347.html

   hfl13

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Bachmann_presidential_campaign,_2012

   hfl13

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/MicheleBachmann-MittRomney-IowaCaucuses-2012PresidentialElection/2011/07/13/id/403438

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