Question Details

What will happen next to NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) stock market Index?

https://www.nasdaq.com

What will happen next to NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) stock market Index?

Asked by: Super UserJosef Biesenberger in Business » Economics
Settled on 11/08/2024 07:21 Settled by Super UserJosef Biesenberger
Winning option:closing-quote for ^NDX is climbing above 21.000 pontsuote for ^NDX is climbing above 21.000 ponts'.

Predictions

Background

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq

New alltime-highs for ^NDX and SPX:
https://x.com/allstarcharts/status/1796720661626261699/photo/1

latest quotes:
https://tradingeconomics.com/ndx:ind

Comparison of leading US-Idices in the last 5 Years:
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=RUT&x=32&y=15&time=100&startdate=6%2F1%2F2019&enddate=10%2F30%2F2024&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=SPX%2Cndx%2Cqqqe%2Cnya%2Cdjia%2Cvalug%2CW5000FLT%2Ccomp%2CDWCF&comp=SPX%2Cndx%2Cqqqe%2Cnya%2Cdjia%2Cvalug%2CW5000FLT%2Ccomp%2CDWCF&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=4194304&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15

FED Target rate: Probability of rate-cuts during upcoming 3 years
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Next rate-cut on Sep 18 2024: 75% probablility

US Tech 100 Index traded at 20.356 on Friday July 5 2024.
Over the last 12 months, its price rose by 35.7 percent.

Update July 5 2024:
Looking ahead, Trading Economics is forecasting US Tech 100 Index to be priced at 19.316 by End Q3_2024, according to Trading Economics global macro models projections and analysts expectations.

IMHO the valuation of ^NDX, with a PE (price/earnings-ratio) of around 33 is in the middle of a bubble, bursting soon:
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields

3 Predictive Metrics That Suggest a Sizable Downturn in Stocks Is Forthcoming:
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/27127566/stock-market-crash-2024-3-predictive-metrics-that-suggest-a-sizable-downturn-in-stocks-is-forthcoming

US 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread is negative:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=BX%3ATMUBMUSD02Y&x=57&y=12&time=100&startdate=3%2F1%2F2022&enddate=12%2F30%2F2024&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=BX%3ATMUBMUSD10Y&comp=BX%3ATMUBMUSD10Y&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=4194304&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15

Real M2 Money Stock is contracting:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL

Shiller PE-Ratio is greater than 36, aproaching the 10 year-high of 38.6:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

S&P 500 Price to book-value @ alltime high:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book

S&P 500 Dividend Yield near alltime low:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield

Ratio of US Total Market Cap over GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is greather than 195% = near to the alltime high of 200%:
https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/4602/usa-ratio-of-total-market-cap-over-gdp

Ratio of Wilshire 5000 index over GNP (Gross National Product) is greather than 1.94 = near to the alltime high of 2.09:
https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/60/ratio-of-wilshire-5000-over-gnp

Debt-financed stock-holdings are high:
https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/margin-accounts/margin-statistics
809 bill USD = near to alltime hig of 936 bill USD

Insider selling in tech stocks hits its highest level in three years:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60ceb87b-a67d-43d2-9e75-247388df5fd8_1456x1166.png

Insider transaction-ratio of 8 is indicating a bullish market-expectation:
https://www.isabelnet.com/insider-transactions-ratio

And the seaonal pattern "Sell in may and go away..." is just ahead./ ongoing

Ray Dalios view: No bubble
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-stock-market-bubble-ray-dalio-zpdre/

Forecast:
https://www.forecasts.org/nasd.htm (analog: ^NDX)

Warnings and gloomy predictions:
70% Market correction ahead:
youtube.com/watch?v=rU7D7MMLE_c

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/will-the-stock-market-crash-risk-factors

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-bubble-correction-dot-com-tech-overvalued-ai-2024-6

https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/top-story/story/economist-warns-of-impending-market-crash-in-2025-expected-to-surpass-2008-crisis-a-look-back-at-timeline-of-2008-market-collapse-433010-2024-06-12

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/black-swan-universa-spitznagel-treasuries-bonds-debt-bubble-fed-recession-2023-11?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-economy-debt-credit-bubble-interest-rates-2023-11

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-rate-cuts-stock-market-crash-recession-outlook-economy-investing-2024-4

Find similar: nasdaq, ndx, stocks, index, bubble, crash

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