Question Details
https://www.nasdaq.com
What will happen next to NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) stock market Index?
currently Open, suspends 09/29/2024 22:30 (in )
Predictions
Background
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq
latest quotes:
https://tradingeconomics.com/ndx:ind
US Tech 100 Index traded at 18.245 on Friday March 29th 2024.
Over the last 12 months, its price rose by 40.75 percent.
Update April 29 2024:
Looking ahead, Trading Economics is forecasting US Tech 100 Index to be priced at 16.989 in one year, according to Trading Economics global macro models projections and analysts expectations.
IMHO the valuation of ^NDX, with a PE (price/earnings-ratio) of around 31 is in the middle of a bubble, bursting soon:
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
Shiller PE-Ratio is greater than 34, aproaching the 10 year-high of 38.6:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Ratio of US Total Market Cap over GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is greather than 180% = near to the alltime high of 200%:
https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/4602/usa-ratio-of-total-market-cap-over-gdp
Ratio of Wilshire 5000 index over GNP (Gross National Product) is greather than 1.8 = near to the alltime high of 2.09:
https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/60/ratio-of-wilshire-5000-over-gnp
Debt-financed stock-holding are high:
https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/margin-accounts/margin-statistics
Insider selling in tech stocks hits its highest level in three years:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60ceb87b-a67d-43d2-9e75-247388df5fd8_1456x1166.png
Insider transaction-ratio of 6 is indicating a bullish market-expectation:
https://www.isabelnet.com/insider-transactions-ratio
And the seaonal pattern "Sell in may and go away..." is just ahead./ ongoing
Ray Dalios view: No bubble
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-stock-market-bubble-ray-dalio-zpdre/
Forecast:
https://www.forecasts.org/nasd.htm (analog: ^NDX)
Warning and gloomy predictions:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/black-swan-universa-spitznagel-treasuries-bonds-debt-bubble-fed-recession-2023-11?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-economy-debt-credit-bubble-interest-rates-2023-11
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-rate-cuts-stock-market-crash-recession-outlook-economy-investing-2024-4
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