French presidential election: How close will the result be?

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French presidential election: How close will the result be?

Asked by:

Stephen Tilley in Politics » European Union
Settled on 05/07/2012 13:10 Settled by

Stephen Tilley

Winning option: or more but less than 4% http://www.newser.com/article/d9ujs4eg3/final-french-election-tally-shows-hollande-defeats-sarkozy-by-just-over-1-million-votes.html

Final French election tally shows Hollande defeats Sarkozy by just over 1 million votes

Hollande defeats Sarkozy 51.62 pct to 48.38 pct

Difference = 3.24 pct

Predictions

Less than 2%

18.1% →

2% or more but less than 4%

20.0% →

4% or more but less than 6%

42.7% →

6% or more but less than 8%

14.4% →

8% or more but less than 10%

3.9% →

10% or more

1.0% →

Background

How close will the result of the French presidential election be?

Note 1: No need to predict the winner - just the difference in percentage points between them.
Note 2: This will be settled on official results - not exit polls.

Find similar: Hollande, Sarkozy, Election, President

Comments

Comment on this question:

04/30/2012 06:28

Josef Biesenberger

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012

04/24/2012 16:44

Stephen Tilley

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120422-710907.html

Hollande Will Beat Sarkozy In 2nd Round Of French Election - Polls

Socialist Francois Hollande will beat Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of France's presidential election by 54% to 46%, according to the first opinion polls after Sunday's first round vote.

A survey by the Ipsos institute commissioned by French public television and the daily Le Monde predicted a majority of those who backed candidates eliminated in the first round would switch to the frontrunner in the runoff.

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