By University of Stirling, phys.org, May 28, 2014
Professor David Bell from the University of Stirling looked at using “prediction markets” – which include the gambling industry – to forecast the outcome of the referendum. He concluded that these markets often produce more accurate results than relying on opinion polls, which sample opinion on the day they were collected, rather than directly trying to forecast outcomes.
In terms of the Scottish Referendum, Professor Bell studied the history of odds offered on “No” and “Yes” votes from 23 bookmakers between Sep 2013 and May 2014.
“At the end of the period, (the second week of May), the market estimate is that there is around a 7 in 10 chance of a ‘No’ vote,” he says.