Question Details

Will election.princeton.edu predict the Winner of US Presidential Election 2012 correctly ?

http://election.princeton.edu/

Will election.princeton.edu predict the Winner of US Presidential Election 2012 correctly ?

Asked by: Super UserJosef Biesenberger in Politics » United States
Settled on 11/07/2012 16:25 Settled by Super UserJosef Biesenberger
Winning option:Yes prediction Obama 312 Romney 226
actual Obama 303 Romney 235 = prediction tendency correctly forecasted

Predictions

Yes
Yes
No
No

Background

as of Nov 1: Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 95%, Bayesian Prediction 98.7%
as of Oct 29: Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 91%, Bayesian Prediction 97%

http://election.princeton.edu/

Find similar: 2012, presidential election, barack obama, mitt romney, pollyvote

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   Super UserJosef Biesenberger

It's not meant to be October 29th prediction, it is your second case: Is the prediction before election night correct?

   Super UserKnurled

It appears that Princeton will be updating their predictions up until the election is finalized. Is the question here whether Princeton's October 29th predictions (Obama wins re-election: Random Drift 91%, Bayesian Prediction 97%) are correct? Or if the prediction changes (possibly up to election night) is *that* the one to compare to the actual election? The title may need adjusting to reflect the actual question.

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