By Adam Ozimek, Forbes, November 7, 2013
Today as Twitter is having it’s IPO on the New York Stock exchange it is a nice reminder of the value of prediction markets.
Given the uncertainty and the extent of disagreement among analysts, it would be useful to have a simple, objective, market based aggregation of beliefs about what Twitter will be worth. Prediction markets could provide this. In fact, there is evidence they are good at this.
If financial journalism is socially valuable, then so too would be prediction markets designed to create actually objective opinion aggregations. It is hard to argue for allowing one and banning the other.