User Profile

infernalmachine

Member since 12/15/2010

All time highest net worth: 173,630.21 KtN$ (reached: 06/27/2022)

Current net worth : 173,514.58 KtN$

Predictions : 1,136

Third successfull member in communication 12/2019Third successfull member in communication 1/2011

   infernalmachine

Will Mike Pompeo still be secretary of state on April 26, 2022?
Is some software on the site broken?

At current time this question is around 80% No, but in the list of Best Rated questions,it says the most popular option is Yes.

Now it might just be that this question is very volatile, and the question list is only rarely updated (ie recently this question was over 50% Yes, but it has changed dramatically since), but I recall the same issue with a different question only a couple of weeks ago.

   infernalmachine

The impeachment of Donald Trump. What will happen?
Sorry, but I gotta disagree with the last 2 posters. Trump has been impeached since last week. The votes in the House passed, so he is successfully impeached in the first term. Period.

1) Removal from office is a different thing from being impeached. It (removal) is not relevant to this question. Yes, some people use the term "impeached" when they mean "removed", but it's not a correct usage, so it can't be used to settle a question/market. Also "success" applies to impeachment in this question, not to the trial which isn't even mentioned in the question.

2) So, I feel that either the question settles as "During first term - successful", or that the question is seen to be poorly articulated, with too much ambiguity in its language, and therefore is voided.

3) The issue of the missing options is interesting. Either it means the question is incomplete, or that the questioner intended it to be settled as soon as 1 option becomes true. Yes, some of the options would not become knowable until Trump's presidency is over, but others could be. In other words, some options only become possible if other options fail. Example: "During second term - but not successful" implies that no articles of impeachment were voted on in the first term -- otherwise you end up with options overlapping each other. This type of question is fairly common, even if it is logically dubious.

4) The more I think about it, the more I lean toward voiding the question, because there are clearly different possible interpretations of "impeachment" and "successful", and asserting one interpretation over all others will leave some players feeling cheated. dlilley sought clarification on this weeks ago, and clear definitions of these terms should have been given before impeachment was happening.

   infernalmachine

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 06.07.2012?
Thanks. Does the money eventually show up in your account?

   infernalmachine

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 06.07.2012?
Can someone explain to me why when I sell a position, I don't get any cash back, but the amount just disappears from my net worth? I sold about $700 worth of positions today and I never received any cash?