User Profile

Super UserKnurled

Member since 10/17/2012

All time highest net worth: 1,327,202.19 KtN$ (reached: 09/18/2019)

Current net worth : 1,327,214.56 KtN$

Predictions : 2,053

Third successfull member in community 7/2016Most successfull member in communication 7/2016Most successfull member in communication 1/2014Second most successfull member in community 12/2013Most successfull member in communication 12/2013Second most successfull member in community 11/2013Most successfull member in communication 11/2013Most successfull member in communication 10/2013Third successfull member in community 8/2013Most successfull member in communication 8/2013Third successfull member in community 7/2013Most successfull member in communication 7/2013Second most successfull member in communication 6/2013Second most successfull member in communication 5/2013Third successfull member in communication 4/2013Second most successfull member in community 3/2013Most successfull member in communication 3/2013Third successfull member in communication 12/2012Third successfull member in marketcreation 11/2012Third successfull member in community 10/2012Second most successfull member in marketcreation 10/2012

   Super UserKnurled

Will another U.S state add "X.non-binary"option too their drivers licenses in 2017?
Assuming this means *any* third (not M/F) gender, even if not named exactly "X.non-binary".

   Super UserKnurled

How will Politico's 11 swing states poll in the 2016 presidential election?
This should be settled as Clinton 4, Trump 7:

Colorado, HRC
Florida, DJT
Iowa, DJT
Michigan, DJT
Nevada, HRC
New Hampshire, HRC
North Carolina, DJT
Ohio, DJT
Pennsylvania, DJT
Virginia HRC
Wisconsin DJT

For DJT: 7: FL, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, WI
For HRC: 4: CO, NV, NH, VA

https://www.google.com/search?q=presidential+election+results+2016+by+state&rlz=1C1GPCK_enUS446US447&oq=presidential+election+results+2016+by+state&aqs=chrome..69i57.12696j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#eob=enn/p//0/0///////////

   Super UserKnurled

US 2016 Presidential election. What will be the first letter of Vice-Presidential winner's surname?
Does the question refer to first name (e.g. Stephen) or last name (e.g. Tilley)?

   Super UserKnurled

Ukraine: Will there be local elections in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions before winter?
They had apparently agreed to hold elections in February 2016, but have not held them yet:
http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160610/1041118378/donbass-ukraine-elections-constitution.html
Looks like the "No's" have it.

   Super UserKnurled

Everybody tells me, 'Please run for president. Please run for president' - Donald Trump 2016?
Pretty sure he has "thought about running for President". More than just thinking.

Let's settle it.

   Super UserKnurled

Will the US Congress override the threatened veto of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)?
Looks like the veto happened. Now to see if Congress overrides the veto.

   Super UserKnurled

Will the Washington Redskins lose its federal trademark registration?
It's grandfathered in, and any litigation will probably not finish before suspension date (5/31/2014).

   Super UserKnurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 28.11.2013?
I think the markets will be closed on Thanksgiving Day, November 28, 2013.

   Super UserKnurled

Will a new autopsy reveal that Yasir Arafat was poisoned with radioactive Polonium?
From Reuters:

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat was poisoned to death in 2004 with radioactive polonium, his widow Suha said on Wednesday after receiving the results of Swiss forensic tests on her husband's corpse.

...

Professor David Barclay, a British forensic scientist retained by Al Jazeera to interpret the results of the Swiss tests, said the findings from Arafat's body confirmed the earlier results from traces of bodily fluids on his underwear, toothbrush and clothing.

"In my opinion, it is absolutely certain that the cause of his illness was polonium poisoning," Barclay told Reuters. "The levels present in him are sufficient to have caused death.

"What we have got is the smoking gun - the thing that caused his illness and was given to him with malice."

   Super UserKnurled

Will a new autopsy reveal that Yasir Arafat was poisoned with radioactive Polonium?
Swiss radiation experts have confirmed they found traces of polonium on clothing used by Yasser Arafat which "support the possibility" the veteran Palestinian leader was poisoned.

In a report published by The Lancet at the weekend, the team provide scientific details to media statements made in 2012 that they had found polonium on Arafat's belongings.

http://www.france24.com/en/20131014-radiation-experts-confirm-polonium-arafat-clothing

   Super UserKnurled

If Not Geithner, Who Will Replace Bernanke?
Presumably the question will be settled when the nominee is confirmed, right?

   Super UserKnurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 06.05.2013?
It's "about even" much more than 30,0% of the time.

   Super UserKnurled

Will the current Uganda Ebola outbreak spread to the US?
Looks like this one is ready to settle.
"Ugandan health officials are declaring the country free of an Ebola outbreak blamed for 17 deaths since late July."
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/06/health/uganda-ebola-free/index.html

   Super UserKnurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 29.11.2012?
This one should be ready to settle...

   Super UserKnurled

How many people will board UFOs during the apocalypse on Dec. 21st, in Bugarach (FR)?
Are the third and fourth choice valid if there is NO apocalypse, but there IS a UFO?

   Super UserKnurled

What will be the closing price of Apple Inc. (AAPL) on Friday, November 16, 2012?
Any feedback on the "bucket size" (range of each prediction option) of this question? Too small? Too large?

I find larger buckets have a disadvantage in that you can easily lose if the final value of the statistic is just over the line. With small buckets it's easy to avoid this by dividing the stake into as many buckets as needed for the expected range. Since the odds are higher with smaller buckets, this is less of a risk: the payoff from splitting a bet between two 20% buckets is the same as putting it all on one 40% one.

   Super UserKnurled

Filibuster reform: Will the "nuclear option" be used?
Does "No Reform Proposed" need to be re-worded to something like "No Reform Passes"? It doesn't appear that there's any prediction for "no change to Senate filibuster rules in January 2013".

   Super UserKnurled

Will polltracker TrackingPointsMemo predict the Winner of US Presidential Election 2012 correctly ?
Which prediction is "final" for this question? Polltracker is currently predicting an Obama victory. If before the election they change their prediction, which one is the operative prediction? One conclusion in that case could be that if either candidate wins they "did predict correctly" (at some point).

   Super UserKnurled

Will election.princeton.edu predict the Winner of US Presidential Election 2012 correctly ?
It appears that Princeton will be updating their predictions up until the election is finalized. Is the question here whether Princeton's October 29th predictions (Obama wins re-election: Random Drift 91%, Bayesian Prediction 97%) are correct? Or if the prediction changes (possibly up to election night) is *that* the one to compare to the actual election? The title may need adjusting to reflect the actual question.

   Super UserKnurled

Will Silvio Berlusconi be convicted of any crime during 2012?
Time to close this one. He's been convicted of tax evasion and sentenced to 4 years.

   Super UserKnurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 23.10.2012?
Based on yesterday's close at $13,345.89,
+1.50% +$200.19 $13,546.08
+0.50% +$66.73 $13,412.62
-0.50% -$66.73 $13,279.16
-1.50% -$200.19 $13,145.70

   Super UserKnurled

3rd Presidential Debate: Boca Raton, Oct 22nd, Who will win?
Regarding settlement and the poll: will the question be judged by the poll of "undecided voters" as CBS did last time or "debate watchers" as CNN did? See http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57533850/poll-obama-edges-romney-in-second-debate/
and http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/19/poll-debate-watchers-thought-obama-won/

   Super UserKnurled

Will Sandy Crocker find his Irish beauty?
Sorry fella, I'm betting 'no'.

   Super UserKnurled

What will be the daily change of the DJIA on 19.10.2012?
Price points are:
+1.5% = $13,752.17
+0.5% = $13,616.68
-0.5% = $13,481.20
-1.5% = $13,345.71
Current price is $13,398.87 (-1.11%)