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Will Facebook will lose 80 percent of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017?

Will Facebook will lose 80 percent of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017?

Asked by: Super Usergotmick in Technology » Internet
currently suspended Suspend date reached on 11/30/2017 07:45



Have you been infected with Facebook?

Don't worry, like a viral outbreak, Facebook use will explode before plummeting down to Myspace levels of obscurity, says a new study from Princeton University.

Using epidemiological models used to study the rapid spread of disease, the researchers found that Facebook has "already reached the peak of its popularity and has entered a decline phase."

How bad will it get? Facebook will lose "80 percent of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017," according to the researchers. To explain why social networks are like infectious diseases, the study pointed to similar research done with ideas.

This study hasn't been peer-reviewed and Facebook, which currently boasts 874 million users worldwide, would certainly object to being compared to a viral epidemic. But the company itself admitted in October to losing teen users. Later, a study by digital consultancy iStrategy Labs claimed that Facebook had 25 percent fewer teenage users in 2013 than it did in 2011. (Apparently, American teens are susceptible to a new virus called Snapchat).

Of course, the online landscape is different now than it was in 2005, when News Corp. bought Myspace for $580 million. Regardless, the world should probably look forward to Morgan Freeman and Jesse Eisenberg starring in a mash-up of "The Social Network" and "Outbreak." Look for it in your dwindling Facebook feed in the future.

Market settles if/when the Weekly search queries ranking (Trend) for “Facebook” reaches 20

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Princeton Study (PDF):

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   John Miller predicted After 2017 (or never)

80% is a little too much to wager on....

   Super Userkruijs

Last week Princeton researchers released a widely covered study saying Facebook would lose 80% of its users by 2015-2017. But now Facebook’s data scientists have turned the study’s silly “correlation equals causation” methodology of tracking Google search volume against it to show Princeton would lose all of its students by 2021.

A Facebook spokesperson says “the report that Princeton put out is utter nonsense.” Indeed, it’s flawed throughout.

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