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2013 L.A. Mayor's Race who's going to win?

The Wrap

2013 L.A. Mayor's Race who's going to win?

Asked by: Super UserKentoine Johnson in Politics » United States
Settled on 03/06/2013 21:36 Settled by Super Userkruijs
Winning option:no mayoral candidate gets the majority of voters City Councilman Eric Garcetti will face City Controller Wendy Greuel in a May runoff election to choose the next mayor of Los Angeles after neither candidate captured a majority in Tuesday’s municipal elections.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/07/us/los-angeles-mayors-race.html?_r=0

Predictions

Emanuel Pleitez
Emanuel Pleitez
18.0%
Eric Garcetti
Eric Garcetti
17.7%
Jan Perry
Jan Perry
17.6%
Kevin James
Kevin James
17.5%
Wendy Greuel
Wendy Greuel
17.2%
no mayoral candidate gets the majority of voters
no mayoral candidate gets the majority of voters
it's a runoff between the top two finishers
12.2%

Background

Believe it or not, someone wants to be the next mayor of Los Angeles in 2013, when Antonio Villaraigosa will be termed out of office after eight, turbulent years at the helm.

With that in mind, L.A. Weekly recently talked with a panel of political pros about who has the best chances of winning and why. Our findings will be published in a major feature story April 28, and will appear on our web site the afternoon of April 27.

Who is leading the pack for Los Angeles Mayor 2013, and who, surprisingly, is badly trailing, according to the experts? Let's just say the candidates have quite the political battle ahead.


Not only will the field probably be jammed with candidates, who will be vying for much-needed campaign contributions from many of the same donors, but the unusual political realities of 2012 are going to play a role in the 2013 L.A. mayor's race.

The field of known and unknown candidates include wealthy investment banker Austin Beutner, billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso, L.A. City Council President Eric Garcetti, L.A. City Controller Wendy Greuel, gay Republican and radio show host Kevin James, California State Senator Alex Padilla, L.A. City Councilwoman Jan Perry, and L.A. County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky.

Our top-notch experts rate each candidate's chances and why they think the politicos are strong or abysmally weak, sharing their insightful thoughts with candor.

Who do you think will win and why?

http://blogs.laweekly.com/informer/2011/04/2013_los_angeles_mayor_race.php

Find similar: 2013, Los Angeles, mayoral

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   Super UserKentoine Johnson

http://blogs.laweekly.com/informer/2013/02/wendy_greuel_poll_1.php
A new private poll shows Controller Wendy Greuel and Councilman Eric Garcetti advancing to a runoff in the race for L.A. mayor, with Greuel taking a slight lead ahead of the March 5 primary vote.



The poll was paid for by a Greuel-friendly source who declined to be identified, and conducted by a professional polling firm with extensive experience in L.A. elections.




Here are the results:





Wendy Greuel 27

Eric Garcetti 24

Jan Perry 16

Kevin James 11

Emanuel Pleitez 3




The poll was conducted Feb. 14-17. The sample size is 500 likely voters. The margin of error is 4.4% -- so Garcetti is trailing within the margin. The poll projects a turnout of 25%. It also estimates that Latinos will comprise 23% of that turnout, which is on the low end of expectations. That could skew the result in Greuel's favor, because Garcetti has a sizable lead with Latino voters. (Garcetti's camp hopes to boost Latino turnout closer to 30%.)




The poll shows gains for Greuel and for Jan Perry compared with a survey conducted by the same firm on Jan. 12-17. Here are those results:




Eric Garcetti 23

Wendy Greuel 21

Jan Perry 13

Kevin James 10

Emanuel Pleitez 3




The sample size for the January poll is 1000 likely voters, and the margin of error is 3%.

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