What will be the Sunspot Number (Average Jan-Dec) for 2013 ?

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What will be the Sunspot Number (Average Jan-Dec) for 2013 ?

Asked by:

Josef Biesenberger in Science » Environment
Settled on 01/12/2014 19:31 Settled by

Josef Biesenberger

Winning option:63 to less than 68 sunspots 64.6 sunspots

Predictions

less than 63 sunspots

42.1% →

63 to less than 68 sunspots

36.8% →

68 to less than 74 sunspots

12.2% →

74 to less than 79 sunspots

5.8% →

79 sunspots or more

3.1% →

Background

latest records:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
http://sidc.oma.be/DATA/monthssn.dat

2013
Jan: 62.9 sunspots
Feb: 38.0
Mar: 57.9
Apr: 72.4
May: 78.7
Jun: 52.5
Jul: 57.0
Aug: 66.0
Sep: 36.9

Update: Prediction method has been slightly revised Feb-16-2012.
original text:
Solar Cycle Prediction
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 99 in February of 2013. We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.

Find similar: greenhouse, environment, warming, cooling, solar cycle 24

Comments

Comment on this question:

12/27/2013 21:57

kruijs predicted 63 to less than 68 sunspots

62.3, without december

12/27/2013 21:54

kruijs

Figures for 2013 (Jan-Nov), last updated 27 Dec 2013:

62.9 38.0 57.9 72.4 78.7 52.5 57.0 66.0 36.9 85.6 77.6

from http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

01/04/2013 19:33

Josef Biesenberger

monthly figures at the end of this page: http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

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