Question Details

Will electoral-vote.com Predict the Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election 2012 correctly ?

http://electoral-vote.com/

Will electoral-vote.com Predict the Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election 2012 correctly ?

Asked by: Super UserJosef Biesenberger in Politics » United States
Settled on 11/07/2012 16:18 Settled by Super UserJosef Biesenberger
Winning option:Yes prediction Nov 06: Dem 303, Rep 220, Ties 15
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Nov06.html
result: Dem 303, Rep 235
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Nov07.html
= prediction correct

Predictions

Background

Graph: http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ec_graph-2012-all.png

http://electoral-vote.com/
Welcome to Electoral Vote Predictor, which tracks political polls for U.S. federal elections. The site was immensely popular in 2004, ranking in the top 1000 Websites in the world and the top 10 blogs in the world, with about 700,000 visitors a day. In some surveys, it was the most popular election site in the country. In 2006, it tracked the Senate and House elections. In 2008, it tracked the presidential and congressional races and was getting over 1 million visitors a day at the end. In 2010 it did the Senate and House. In 2012 it is tracking the presidential race and the Senate but not the House because House races are polled too infrequently and there is no historical data for the new congressional districts to fill in the many gaps.

Unlike other sites, which track generic national polls, this site tracks the state-by-state polls. After all, the presidency is decided by 51 separate state elections and the Senate by 33 separate elections (in 2012). As new state polls are released, the maps, spreadsheets, tables, graphs, etc. will be updated. In the maps, the states with white centers are statistical ties and are subject to rapid fluctuations.

The main page contains a map showing the state of the polls for the presidency. Putting the mouse on a state pops up information about the polls there. Clicking on a state goes to a graph of the presidential polls for that state. There are numerous other pages with election data on the site. From any page, clicking on the "electoral-vote.com" name on the red banner at the top of the page takes you back to the main page.

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