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Josef Biesenberger
What will be the Ocean Temperature Anomaly (Average 1901-2000) for July 2012 ?
Josef Biesenberger in
Science
» Environment
Settled on 08/17/2012 05:42 by
kruijssettled question on option '+ 0.50° Celsius or even more'.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat
Background
view graph: http://bit.ly/MvBsJF
2012 4 0.3916 ° Celsius
2012 5 0.4573 ° Celsius
2012 6 0.4669 ° Celsius
latest records: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat
Base-Priod for anomaly-calculation: 1901-2000
Predicting future temperatures Mon, 04/04/2011 - 23:52 — apsmith
A few months ago Tamino at Open Mind posted a fascinating analysis of warming obtained by fitting the various observational temperature series to a linear combination of El Nino, volcano, and solar cycle variations (using sun spots as a proxy for the latter), plus an underlying trend, allowing for some offsets in time between the causative series and the temperature. Year to year global average temperatures fluctuate significantly, by several tenths of a degree. Taking into account these "exogenous" factors, however, greatly reduced the level of variation. Not only does this more clearly show the underlying trend, once the "exogenous" components are removed, but it occurred to me this also allows prediction of future temperatures with considerably more confidence than the usual guessing (though I've done well with that in the past), at least for a short period into the future.
http://arthur.shumwaysmith.com/life/content/predicting_future_temperatures
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